Is it a good time to buy?

It's the question everyone asks. And the honest answer is uncomfortable: it almost never depends on the market as much as you think.

Let's get the uncomfortable part out of the way first: nobody knows where the bottom is. Not me, not the guy at the bank, not the one who swears "right now is when it's cheap." Anyone who tells you they know where the bottom lies is selling you a certainty that doesn't exist.

But that doesn't make buying a lottery. It just means the market matters — but usually less than people think.

Because there are three different things almost everyone rolls into one:

— The market's timing. Whether rates go up or down, whether prices will correct. You don't control it, and almost no one calls it right twice in a row.
— Your timing. Whether you have the down payment without leaving yourself with no cushion, whether your income carries the payment, whether you'll stay in the property long enough. This you do control — and it's what actually decides.
— The specific deal. You don't buy "the market." You buy a property, at a price, in an area. A good deal in a lukewarm market beats a bad deal in a hot one.

And here's the trap in "better wait for it to drop":

Waiting has a cost no one puts on your invoice. While you wait, you pay rent, rates move, inventory shifts, and the deal that did make sense can disappear. Sometimes you save. Sometimes you end up paying about the same a year later — with one more year of rent and fewer options.

That doesn't mean "buy now" either. Sometimes waiting is right: if you're stretched, if the deal doesn't add up, if you don't know how long you'll stay. Forcing a purchase out of fear of "missing the moment" is how people end up with the wrong property.

A while back, someone wanted to wait six months to see if prices dropped. When we ran the full scenario —rent, a possible rate change, and the options actually available— the difference was much smaller than they imagined. They didn't buy out of optimism. They bought because their situation already added up.

And watch out for borrowed urgency. An incentive that expires or a promotion can order your calendar, but they don't turn a bad deal into a good one. The deadline tightens the timeline. Not the numbers.

The best time to buy is almost never announced by the market. Your situation builds it: when the down payment, the payment, the timeframe and the deal all line up at once. The rest is guessing the weather.